Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
